Going Down with the Ship
The markets are not looking too good. Now I could put a favorable spin on the economic data and provide reasonable confidence in buying the dip. However, from a zoomed-out perspective, the market drivers are foreshadowing extreme pain. For the last 5 years I have been of the volition that stocks, real estate, and a variety of other markets would continue higher and higher assuming the Federal Reserve participated in quantitative easing. This policy pumped trillions of newly created dollars into assets and their debt derivatives. Coupled with historically low interest rates, this mechanism created the perfect environment for risk assets to flourish. There is almost no downside risk when an entity with unlimited buying power is manipulating markets to the upside. Consequently, it’s been a hell of run for equities and real estate but nothing lasts forever. I speculate that this favorable environment no longer exists. I will explain my reasoning for an impending bear market (assuming were not already in it) and the implications that will have on different markets.
The elephant in the room is of course inflation. That has become the outcry of consumers around the world as their purchasing power is diminished due to overprinting by banks. Inflation has existed as long as central banks have had the ability to create money from nothing. Creating inflation is actually the number one goal of central banks. The more money they create, the more powerful they become. This mechanism is favorable to the rich as their asset prices steadily increase, but conversely this is detrimental to poor and middleclass individuals who consistently lose purchasing power and are castigated for saving their money. This system creates the “balanced” two-tiered society of plebs and elites. The bankers will never admit that income inequality is a biproduct of inflation, so they will convince you that a 2% year over year inflation rate signifies growth and strength in an economy. Households with the capacity and knowledge to invest their money wisely can beat inflation every year and then some. Uneducated individuals are stuck with low interest savings accounts and 401Ks to hopefully break even. In the past couple of years, this system has become too noticeable. Central banks are now forced to combat inflation to keep price stability and negate any rebellious aspirations involving guillotines.
14 years of quantitative easing and cheap debt has put us in environment full of insolvent governments and over valued assets. Economists would call this a bubble which eventually must burst. These boom-and-bust cycles are conditional requirements of fractional reserve banking. This allows banks to lend out 10x the amount of money they have in actual reserves. Imagine being able lend out 10x the amount of your checking account and collect interest on the debt. This has allowed industries to finance corporate expansion, governments to finance war and social programs, and you to finance a home. One could argue that the positives outweigh the negatives. However, we have not experienced a true recession since 2008. In fact, the Great Financial Crises should have been much more dramatic and prolonged had it not been for central bank intervention. The banks and corporations that should gone bankrupt and cease to exist were given bailouts and stimulus irrespective of their blatant fraud and mistakes. We have subsequently “kicked the can down the road” to protect the interests of Wall Street and politicians. We are now at the end of the road; the sidewalk has ended and there is no detour. The central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, have inflated the most massive debt and asset bubble that the human species has ever experienced. This eventual burst will be far greater than the 2008 GFC and will probably compare better to the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Isn’t that fun?
You’re probably wondering, why can’t the Federal Reserve and foreign central banks step in to do the same quantitative easing done for the past decade and a half. The truth is that they are running out of dry powder. Printing more money and providing stimulus to markets will only kick the can further down the road and of course create more inflation. Interest rates worldwide, have been held down around zero. You can’t lower rates from zero. The European Central Bank tried negative rates during the pandemic which of course incentivized more borrowing and spending and of course created more inflation. So the central banks have to choose between sustained inflation or controlled demolition of the world economy. It appears that they have chosen both.
At this moment (beginning of Q4, 2022) central banks around the world have continued to inflate their currency and keep rates low. In opposition, the U.S. Federal Reserve has changed course an begun to raise interest rates by astounding margins. Side note: a 4% federal funds rate is not high historically, but it is 4x higher than rates have been for the past decade and asset prices are much higher now. This is why mortgage payments have doubled in less than 6 months. The inflated price of homes on top of a higher interest rate have exponentially raised the cost of owning a home. The Fed is tasked with fighting inflation by raising rates and decreasing their balance sheet. Since 2008 the Federal Reserve balance sheet has gone from around 800 billion to just under 9 trillion dollars. Remember central banks don’t actually create value they just create debt by printing money and loaning it. So, they must decrease the debt they hold while increasing rates to properly fight inflation. This is easier said than done for a couple of reasons. First, yields on bonds (debt) is still below the rate of inflation. Second, the yield for 2-year treasuries is higher than 10-year treasuries. As a buyer of bonds, why would you invest in a product that returns less than the rate of inflation that lasts for 10 years even though you could get better returns from a 2-year contract. Who in their right mind is buying this? The answer is the Federal Reserve. But wait, I thought the fed needs to sell debt to decrease inflation, not buy it. Well, if they don’t buy the debt and no one else wants to buy it either than we would have a disgusting liquidity crisis causing all the governments of the world to go insolvent. You see the problem here. The Federal Reserve, regardless of what they say, is unable to raise rates without causing an implosion in the debt market unless they buy up the debt that no one wants. Yes, this is inflationary!
Why would the Federal Reserve raise rates with the intention of bringing down inflation, if they could only do it by creating more inflation? Bingo they’re lying! Consider for a moment that central bankers don’t care about you or your purchasing power. They have an ultimatum; they can allow the debt market to implode and demolish the world economy or continue to inflate and make everyday citizens destitute for a decade or so. What about the stock market? Well that’s not their problem, as they recently banned all Fed members from owning stocks at the end of 2021 when the market topped. They had already enriched themselves by insider trading and they sold everything right before they implemented policy unfavorable to equities. Why bother raising rates then? Other than to make people miserable, I can only speculate that they are raising the Federal Funds rate to replenish their QE capabilities. An actual recession could bring down the whole system, so they need something to pivot from. Remember you cannot cut rates from zero, so they need some dry powder to use when they step in to save the day and bailout Wall Street again. The rest of the world’s central banks will continue to inflate and protect their own currencies against a strong dollar and the Federal Reserve will suck up the liquidity of these failing currencies to prop up the reserve currency (USD) and pretend that they are actually fighting inflation.
The next obvious question is how this environment effects markets. Historically, rising rates and inflationary pressures are not particularly bad for assets but the lack of QE and looming recession will definitely not help. A significant pivot in Fed policy could send assets much higher perhaps even to new highs. Literally anything can happen in these markets, I personally feel that the upside potential is not worth the downside risk in the event of some economic catastrophe. I have much higher conviction in assets with true value. A bear market can be allegorical of beach where the tide going out to show who isn’t wearing pants. The assets with overinflated values (no pants) will be hit the hardest and the things with inherent value will be able to weather the storm and potentially rise inversely to everything else. When you think of true value think of products and services that people need. Basic necessities like food, shelter and water are good places to start. Also consider societal requirements such as energy, essential software and stores of value. These are markets that I am personally engaging to hedge my risk and potentially build wealth
Growth oriented companies with high Dividends:
You cannot expect every company to be decimated in a long-term recession. Even in bear markets there are winners that can handle lower buy volumes and poor consumer confidence. Speculative stocks, particularly entertainment related tech and service companies will have a much harder time generating revenue from advertising and non-essential products. When consumers are having a hard time making ends meet they will refrain from luxuries and frivolous purchases. Companies that provide essential products and services to consumers and other businesses will thrive in comparison to the broader market. In addition, equities that yield a high dividend will allow you to build cashflow in your portfolio and help reinvest that cash at lower stock prices. This is a great way to create wealth, even if a stock is going lower due to external pressures. It is also important to look at the company’s history of raising dividend yields even during recessions. Dividends are essentially a company’s way of paying you to hold their stock and provide liquidity to their business.
Energy:
Regardless of the catastrophe, the world will still need electricity and fuel. Oil & Gas companies are very malleable and are able to maintain or increase production during difficult times. While they may lag and fall with other markets initially, commodities will see serious growth in tumultuous periods, especially raw materials like oil and natural gas. We have already seen recent supply shocks in concert with higher demand stemming from um… War. Unless world peace comes around in the next few years, doubtful, or governments make incredible strides to reduce fossil fuel use, more doubtful, crude oil and natural gas will keep high prices and rise continuously. If you are more interested in the renewables space, I would highly consider Uranium miners/enrichers and producers of nuclear energy. Nuclear is only “renewable” with the capability of reliable power generation for expansive populations. Uranium miners saw incredible price action in 2021 and have fallen almost simultaneously with oil stocks. It seems that all forms of energy generating stocks are correcting with the market and has made them increasingly cheap. Escalation of war and energy shortages in Europe will send these stocks to new highs.
Real Estate:
Housing is absolutely in a bubble and these recent rate hikes have caused mortgage payments to soar. We will see price corrections in a variety of real estate markets around the country. Some regions will be hit a lot harder than others. The coastal areas will likely fall much further due to inflated prices, but they will also come back quicker due to higher demand. Pay attention to rent vs mortgage payments in your area of choice. Cash buyers will have a serious leg up compared to individuals who finance. If you do plan to get a mortgage, make sure your rates are fixed and don’t forget to include property taxes and insurance in your payment calculation (its always more expensive than you think). It may be considered irresponsible to buy real estate at the top of the bubble, but you cannot guarantee that a crash will occur, it could just get more expensive while you sit on your hands. Even following a crash, inventory will be sparse and lending will be expensive or even impossible if banks refuse to finance it. The realtors and lenders will always say “the best time to buy is now” which is obviously a lie. Only buy if it makes sense, renting won’t get you anywhere, but neither will a mortgage default. For rental investors, be wary of your municipalities eviction policies or you could be stuck with a squatter for a year. Rental income is great way to pay down mortgages, but it has to be consistent, or you’ll just have a money pit that you’re not even living in. Raw land and farmland can also be great ways to hedge during inflationary periods. They have little to no maintenance and agriculture tax exemptions can bring down costs. Dirt is always king as there are only 36,794,240,000 acres on planet Earth and we’re not getting any more.
Precious and Industrial Metals:
Scarce resources will thrive during long-term inflationary periods. They literally have to pull it out of the ground, enrich the ore and produce viable products for actual use. Metals like copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, and iron are essential for industrial use and infrastructure. Precious metals like gold, palladium and platinum derive value from their scarcity. Silver does all of those things and also kills vampires so it’s definitely my favorite. Central banks and governments hoard these metals to ensure liquidity in their vaults and keep a store of value. You should do the same. As the cost to mine and produce these metals goes up so will the price of the metal itself. Mining stocks typically outperform the metal itself as they keep reserves and sell at a premium. These markets are incredibly cyclical and heavily manipulated so buy cheap and hold on tight.
Digital Assets:
We are pretty much in uncharted waters when it comes to cryptocurrencies because they have only existed during bull markets (bitcoin created in 2009). This market tends to follow the stock market and correct with it, performing more as a risk asset than a store of value or inflation hedge. This could lead to a disgusting bear market for digital assets if the stock market crashes. Contradicting myself, I believe there is true value in some of these assets, especially ones that have a designated use case. I feel that at some point, assuming regulatory clarity and price discovery is achieved, this market will move independent of the stock market and Bitcoin. While I do consider this a speculative market susceptible to nasty crashes, I feel more comfortable holding certain crypto assets as opposed to equities. This is solely because the upside potential is far greater than stocks while risk is relatively the same in my point of view. Not every coin will survive in this market but if you diversify and have a high tolerance for risk (balls of steel), it can be rewarding. This is definitely not for the faint of heart, however, prices are relatively cheap at the moment and a retracement in the stock market could send digital assets much higher.
The Assets that Really Matter:
Strong families and communities are the best hedges you can have, and most of time they’re free! Being physically and mentally strong along with personal independence is more valuable than anything else. Good luck and don’t forget to have fun ;)